Emmi’s latest research reveals a likely historic turning point: global carbon emissions appear to have peaked. Forecasts show a plateau at 36.9 GtCO₂ in 2027, followed by a gradual annual decline. This would mark the first time in modern history that emissions have stabilised, not due to an economic downturn, but because of real-world structural shifts in policy, energy, and investment.

The modelling shows that emissions reductions in the US and EU are now large enough to outweigh ongoing growth in India. More significantly, China (the world’s largest emitter) has likely reached a plateau, with early signals that its enormous investment in clean energy is starting to pay dividends. Meanwhile, for the first time, the carbon footprint of global listed equities has declined by 2.5%, pointing to a broader market inflection point.

For institutional investors, these findings represent more than a data point, they reset the assumptions underpinning climate risk. A real, albeit informal, shadow price on carbon is emerging globally, influencing valuations and risk exposure. With emissions no longer rising uniformly, regional divergence becomes a central challenge, and portfolios must be reassessed accordingly.

This is not a climate victory. Emissions remain far above 1.5°C-aligned levels, and declines remain too shallow to ensure climate stability. But the peak is a signal. The world is no longer in unchecked growth mode.

Emmi’s toolkit is designed to support institutional investors in interpreting emissions data through a financial lens. By allowing users to apply custom carbon prices within FactSet, Emmi enables more tailored scenario analysis and risk assessment. Our team of climate finance experts continuously researches emerging market signals and structural trends to ensure the insights remain aligned with current best practice. This approach helps investors make sense of a shifting landscape, translating emissions data into decision-useful information.