New and refreshed climate scenarios

We've added nine new climate scenarios to Emmi's transition risk framework: eight from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and the IPR Forecast Policy Scenario. Combined with our existing seven NGFS pathways, this brings the total to 17 scenarios from three authoritative frameworks, spanning 1.2°C to 3.5°C of warming by 2100.

New Scenarios

The eight AR6 scenarios are drawn from the IPCC's Illustrative Mitigation Pathways: five archetypal decarbonisation strategies, two reference pathways representing limited action, and one high-end stress test. The IPR Forecast Policy Scenario forecasts the likely policy trajectory based on governments eventually responding to climate impacts with forceful action.

IPCC AR6 Sustainable Dev (1.2°C)

IPCC AR6 Low Demand (1.3°C)

IPCC AR6 High Renewables (1.4°C)

IPCC AR6 1.5°C Neg Emissions (1.5°C)

IPCC AR6 Gradual Strengthening (1.7°C)

IPR Forecast Policy Scenario (2.3°C)

IPCC AR6 Moderate Action (2.7°C)

IPCC AR6 Current Policies (3.0°C)

IPCC AR6 BAU (3.5°C)

Refreshed Default Scenarios

Our default transition risk analysis now uses three IPCC AR6 scenarios that span the full range of outcomes: Sustainable Dev (1.2°C), Gradual Strengthening (1.7°C), and BAU (3.5°C). These replace the three legacy IPCC scenarios (Net Zero, Two Degree, Four Degree), which remain available and will be deprecated over the next 12 months.

NGFS Updates

Minor improvements have been applied to NGFS scenario data. All seven NGFS scenarios remain available with no changes to scenario names. Impact on existing results is negligible.

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