Carbon in reverse: Global CO₂ emissions peak

Emmi’s latest research points to a likely historic turning point: global carbon emissions appear to have peaked. Using weighted Bayesian Ridge regression on Global Carbon Project data from 2000 to 2024, we forecast fossil CO₂ emissions to 2030 for the world’s six largest emitting countries and regions. The results show emissions plateauing at around 36.9 GtCO₂ in 2027, then falling by about 0.12 GtCO₂ a year. That would be the first sustained plateau in modern history outside an economic downturn, driven by structural shifts in energy, policy and investment.

Cuts in the US and EU now outweigh India’s growth

Between 2025 and 2030, the US and EU are projected to cut a combined 0.93 GtCO₂, more than offsetting India’s growth of 0.70 GtCO₂. China, the world’s largest emitter, has likely plateaued at around 12 GtCO₂ a year, with early signs that its clean energy investment is paying off. Companies are moving too. The carbon footprint of global listed equities fell 2.5% in 2023, its first recorded decline.

Climate risk assumptions need resetting

For institutional investors, the findings change the starting point for climate risk analysis. A shadow price on carbon is already operating globally through markets and national policy, raising costs for carbon-intensive activity. Companies positioned for continued growth in fossil fuel demand face faster stranded asset risk as that growth ends. With India still rising, China flat and developed markets falling, regional divergence becomes central to how portfolios are assessed.

The peak still sits far above 1.5°C

This is not a climate victory. Emissions are plateauing well above 1.5°C and 2°C pathways, and the projected decline is too shallow to stabilize the climate. Uncertainty also widens over time, and China and the rest of the world could tip the balance either way. What the peak does show is that global emissions are no longer locked into growth.

Turning emissions data into financial terms

Emmi’s tools help institutional investors read emissions data through a financial lens. Users can apply custom carbon prices within FactSet to run their own scenario analysis and risk assessment. Our climate finance team tracks market signals and structural trends as they develop, so the insights keep pace with the transition.

Download the white paper (below) to explore the full findings.