Emmi's transition and physical risk figures are calculated across published pathways from the IPCC, NGFS, and IPR, not a single assumption about how the world decarbonizes. Where your own view or a supervisory exercise calls for a different pathway, custom scenarios run on a consistent methodology.
A climate scenario is a published pathway for how the world could decarbonize, each with its own global carbon budget and carbon price trajectory. Change the scenario, and the number changes with it, because the budget and price a company is measured against shift too. That's why a single scenario is a guess, and 16+ is a range.
Emmi generates Transition Value at Risk (TVaR) and Physical Value at Risk (PVaR) across 16 published scenarios, not one. They span ambitious action through to policy inertia, so you see the full spread of outcomes, not a single point estimate. Custom scenarios are available on request.
IPCC AR6 (8 scenarios)
Sustainable Development
Moderate Action
Gradual Strengthening
High Renewables
Low Demand
Negative Emissions
Current Policies
Business as Usual (BAU)
NGFS Phase V (7 scenarios)
Net Zero 2050
Below 2°C
Delayed Transition
NDCs
Current Policies
Fragmented World
Low Demand
IPR (1 scenario)
Forecast Policy Scenario
The global carbon budget is scaled to each company by its economic contribution. A carbon-intensive company gets no more headroom than a light one of the same size, so its overspend and its TVaR run higher.
Budgets are set sector by sector. Heavy-emitting sectors are allocated more room than the economy average, which lowers overspend and produces a smaller TVaR than other comparable pathways.
Built by forecasting the policy likely to arrive, rather than working back from a temperature target. It reads as a base case for where current political direction leads. Because it tracks expected policy rather than a target, TVaR under IPR reflects the transition most likely to arrive.
Transition risk
Every TVaR figure across all 16+ scenarios.
Targets
SBTi-validated commitments, projected forward against the same 16+ scenarios to show how TVaR changes if a company delivers.
Forecasts
Replaces the flat emissions baseline with a momentum-based trajectory, then tests that against 16+ scenarios.
Market-impact physical risk
PVaR scenario alignment for diversified holdings.
Geospatial physical risk
Acute hazard exposure aligned to 2080 under RCP/SSP climate pathways, a different framework to the 16+ scenarios above.
The 16 scenarios matter for disclosure, including the extremes regulators require. But for an investment decision, treating every scenario as equally likely can be as misleading as picking one at random. Emmi's research goes a step further. It weights scenario data by probability, calibrated against the observed emissions record, to produce a single expected pathway: the Emmi most likely scenario.
Most likely warming
by 2100, between the 1.5°C and 4°C extremes.
The two scenarios anchoring most institutional stress tests, a 1.5°C pathway and a 4°C Hot House World, together carry a combined probability of under 0.2%. Both remain essential for regulatory disclosure. Neither is where an investment decision should start.
The missing middle
Why the future the world is actually tracking sits between the two scenarios everyone models.
