Market-impact analysis turns storm damage and long-term warming into one financial figure, Physical Value at Risk (PVaR), grounded in how markets react and what warming costs.
For investors
Assess PVaR at the security, sector, or portfolio level, including companies that don't disclose asset locations, a gap asset-level models can't close.
For companies
See your own PVaR, calibrated to how markets have priced physical risk in your sector, benchmarked against listed peers. It picks up exposure that reaches you through your supply chain, not just your own sites, as a financial figure you can take to the board.
Grounded in market performance analysis.
Built for portfolio-wide coverage.
Captures the wider financial consequence, not just direct asset damage.
Calibrated to how markets actually priced major storm events over decades.
No asset-disclosure blind spot, works for any company.
Every holding assigned a risk factor, no gaps in coverage.
Forward-looking, with scenario analysis that supports major reporting frameworks.
We combine proprietary acute damage functions with London School of Economics chronic risk damage functions to produce Physical Value at Risk (PVaR).
We analyze historical data on how companies actually performed following major storm events, assigning a company-, sector-, or industry-level model depending on where the market signal is strongest. These damage functions are combined with future climate scenarios, simulating how the frequency and severity of extreme events may change, and extended globally using country-level risk factors.
Using damage functions developed at the London School of Economics (Dietz et al.), we translate macroeconomic climate models into company-level insights, bridging the gap between GDP-level climate impacts and the value at risk for an individual company.
The result is analysis calibrated to material risk: actionable, not over-engineered.
Direct property damage is usually the smallest part of what a climate event costs. The rest arrives later, and lands on companies that were never in its path.
The global warming pathway a company or fund is currently on, placed on a 1.5°C to 4°C spectrum using IPCC AR6 carbon budgets scaled to company size.
The global warming pathway a company or fund is currently on, placed on a 1.5°C to 4°C spectrum using IPCC AR6 carbon budgets scaled to company size.
The global warming pathway a company or fund is currently on, placed on a 1.5°C to 4°C spectrum using IPCC AR6 carbon budgets scaled to company size.
An event at a supplier or logistics hub stops production at companies with no exposure to the event itself. Disruption frequently exceeds direct damage costs by orders of magnitude.
Where regional production is concentrated, an outage forces buyers onto more expensive alternative suppliers, compressing margins well after operations resume.
Lost output at connected facilities, not just the damaged one, extending across weeks or months rather than days.
Customers switch to competitors who can still supply, and not all of them return once operations resume.
Capital diverted into continuity investment and geographic diversification, changing the cost base for the following year.
When an event affects one company, markets immediately reprice suppliers, customers and competitors in the same network.
Physical Risk (PVaR) + Transition Risk (TVaR) = Climate Value at Risk (CVaR)
TVaR and PVaR are both measured as a percentage loss in value. Each covers a separate channel: transition risk captures the cost of policy and economic change, while physical risk captures damage from the climate itself. Because they share a unit and don't double-count, the two add together into a single figure for total CVaR.
For property, infrastructure, or portfolios concentrated in one region, the relevant question isn't how the market absorbed a storm on average. It's how hazard conditions at that specific location are expected to change.
Location-based models miss risk that travels through supply chains, like Hurricane Harvey's 2017 disruption to Gulf Coast petrochemical supply, which hit Ford, GM, and Newell Brands with no storm damage of their own. They also overstate risk a diversified balance sheet can absorb.
When wildfires destroyed a Kroger supermarket in the January 2025 California fires, a location-based model would have flagged the stock as wildfire-exposed. The market didn't: Kroger's stock decoupled from the broader market within weeks and went on to outperform it.
Where the relationship is real, it's measurable. Six storm-sensitive industries show a statistically significant link between storm damage and stock performance, in line with published climate finance research.
When storms hit markets
The market-impact methodology, tested against major storm events.
Built for insurers. Sold to investors
Why physical risk tools built for insurance underwriting fall short for investment decisions.
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