Transition risk.
A value, not a score.

Turn carbon budgets and carbon pricing into a single financial metric, Transition Value at Risk (TVaR), for any company or asset, public or private, across 16+ climate scenarios.

Transition risk isn't a rating or a red flag. It's a calculated erosion of enterprise value, so you can compare exposure the same way you compare any other financial metric.

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For investors

Assess TVaR at the security, sector, or portfolio level, across listed equities, fixed income, private equity, private debt, property, and infrastructure. See which holdings drive your exposure, and check target credibility before you rely on it.

For companies

Listed or private, measure your own TVaR across the scenarios regulators reference, and see how much enterprise value carbon pricing puts at risk. Benchmark against sector peers, then back targets and transition plans with a quantified financial impact, not a narrative statement of intent.

Multiple layers of analysis.

Transition Value at Risk (TVaR)

Financial exposure to carbon pricing, across 16+ scenarios.

Portfolio attribution

Identify which holdings drive portfolio-level emissions and risk exposure, by issuer, sector, or asset class.

Private market coverage

A comparable TVaR methodology, extended to private equity, private debt, and real assets where reported data falls short.

Emissions reduction requirements

The percentage cut needed to avoid economic downside under a given scenario's carbon budget and price.

Temperature alignment

See what temperature a company or fund is tracking to, based on its emissions relative to scenario carbon budgets.

Target credibility

Compare a company's published target trajectory against its momentum-based forecast, to see whether recent emissions support the target.

See how these metrics build on emissions data

How carbon budgets impact your balance sheet.

Each scenario sets a global carbon budget. We apportion that budget down to the company, so every company has its own carbon budget for a given year. Where a company's emissions sit above it, the gap is an emissions reduction requirement.

If that requirement isn't met by the date the scenario sets, the excess is priced at the scenario's carbon price. That cost erodes EBITDA, and the fall in earnings flows through to enterprise value. TVaR is the result: the maximum potential decline in a company's or asset's value from transition risk under that scenario, expressed as a single number.

Scenario analysis

The 16 published scenarios come from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), and the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR). Custom scenarios are available on request. Each sets its own carbon budget and carbon price trajectory. Running a company or portfolio through all of them shows how exposure shifts under faster or slower decarbonization, rather than resting on a single view of the future.

Explore the scenarios

How transition and
physical risk add up.

Transition Risk (TVaR) + Physical Risk (PVaR) = Climate Value at Risk (CVaR)

TVaR and PVaR are both measured as a percentage loss in value. Each covers a separate channel: transition risk captures the cost of policy and economic change, while physical risk captures damage from the climate itself. Because they share a unit and don't double-count, the two add together into a single figure for total CVaR.

See how physical risk (PVaR) is measured

What a company says. What the data shows.

Emissions and transition risk don't stay fixed. Targets show where a company says it's headed. Forecasts show where its actual behavior suggests it's headed. Both extend the baseline picture with a forward view, not just where things stand today.

Targets

See how science-based, SBTi-validated commitments change a company's projected trajectory and its TVaR if delivered.

Forecasts

See probabilistic, momentum-based emissions pathways, built from observed company behavior, not a flat assumption.

What we found in the data.

We ran TVaR against $24 trillion in outstanding global corporate debt. More than $1 trillion carries a TVaR of 90% or more by 2030 under a 1.5°C Net Zero scenarios, over 4% of the listed corporate bond market at extreme exposure. Under the NGFS 2°C pathway, roughly $130 billion across 71 companies still crosses that same threshold.

$1 TRILLION+

of corporate debt at extreme transition risk

by 2030 under 1.5°C scenarios.

The sharper finding was on green bonds. Green bonds don't reduce an issuer's transition risk: the risk sits with the business, not the bond. Reducing exposure means investing in companies actually cutting emissions, not just labeled debt.

Backed by our research.

Corporate fixed income climate transition risk

Climate transition risk quantified across $24 trillion in outstanding corporate debt, including whether green bonds actually reduce it.

Download the white paper

Transition risk.
A value, not a score.