Carbon in reverse: Global emissions near their peak

About this episode

Global fossil CO₂ emissions have risen almost every year since 2000, with brief dips only during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. Investors need to know when that trend turns, because the answer shapes carbon pricing and transition risk.

This episode covers our forecast of global emissions to 2030. Using 24 years of data from the Global Carbon Project, we modeled emissions for China, the US, India, the EU and the rest of the world, weighting recent years more heavily.

What you’ll hear

We forecast global emissions to plateau at around 36.9 GtCO₂ a year by 2027, then fall by about 0.12 GtCO₂ a year to 2030. Cuts in the US and EU more than offset India’s growth. China and the rest of the world, both flat to falling, tip the balance toward decline.

The episode also covers what this means for investors. Companies betting on continued growth in fossil fuel demand face higher stranded asset risk, and strategies need to reflect very different paths across regions.

The peak is no victory. Emissions are still far above levels consistent with 1.5°C or 2°C, and uncertainty grows toward 2030, especially for China and the rest of the world.

Read the full research

The white paper sets out the forecasting method, with results for each country and region.

Read the white paper